Sad, but true: Neither Ron Paul nor any libertarian has chance to win

If you’re a libertarian who still participates in the majoritarian political system, it can only mean that you’re in denial or that you fantasize reality will suddenly change. You’d be better off looking for a genie to grant you three wishes, because voter reality is very stubborn.

I’ve written before about why Ron Paul can’t win, and I’ve also explained why I won’t be voting for him (or anyone else) when it’s time to vote. There’s no other politician in the state political system who I admire as much as Paul, but the simple fact is that the vast majority of people don’t want the policies he favors. As I’ve said a number of times before, most people don’t want individual liberty. It’s a losing platform, even though it’s right.

I’ve worked around politics for more than 20 years, so it’s very easy for me to separate my preferences from my analysis of what’s really going to happen. Most people who work in the business can do the same thing, even if they’re not likely to admit publicly that their favored candidate can’t win. The wisdom of insiders isn’t perfect, but it’s more accurate than you might realize. So let’s take a look at what Republican and Democratic insiders are saying about the Republican candidates they believe have the best and worst chances of winning the GOP nomination.

Among Republican insiders, Paul’s chances are rated as eighth out of the eight candidates tested. He comes in just below Michele Bachmann. Even John Huntsman has twice the score of Paul. It’s simple. People with knowledge of the process and how voters usually behave don’t think Paul has any chance. And they’re right.

(For the record, the insiders overwhelmingly expect Mitt Romney to win the GOP nomination, even though many of them don’t prefer him. Democratic Party insiders also choose Romney as the likely Republican nominee.)

If you choose to work for Ron Paul this year, just do me one favor. I won’t try to talk you out of it, but I’m begging you to do both of us a favor when the nomination is settled and decided. After you wake up to the reality that it’s not Paul — and that the Republican nominee is one flavor or other of the usual statists — will you please consider that maybe it’s time to give up on the political system? Will you consider that maybe people don’t want the same things we want — and that you’re never going to talk them into changing their minds?

We want individual freedom. We might disagree on the specifics of what it might look like on some issues, but we generally agree on the direction. The vast majority don’t agree with us — and they’re not going to. Continuing to bash your head against a wall by trying to change the world through electoral politics is a dead end if you believe in individual liberty.

Please think about it — especially after you see that the results of this year’s GOP nomination process won’t be much different than the results from 2008 or 2004 or 2000 or…well…you get the idea.