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David McElroy

making sense of a dysfunctional culture

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Winners and losers: After Iowa, where do GOP candidates stand?

By David McElroy · January 5, 2012

Now that the first votes have been cast in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, let’s take a quick look at where the seven candidates stand. We’ll go in order of finish on Tuesday.

Mitt Romney was the official winner on Tuesday, but he was more like a co-winner. He didn’t originally intend to make Iowa important to his campaign this year, but he did end up putting effort into the state when it became obvious that he could win with a last-minute push. The investment paid off and he’s now off to New Hampshire, where he should be a big winner. Grade: A

Rick Santorum has now become the latest conservative flavor of the month. He gained the most from Iowa, because he came within a few votes of winning the state, which brought him (at least for now) out of the pack and made him into a major contender. The question now is whether conservatives are going to line up behind this strong social conservative as the “anti-Romney.” I don’t think he’s a serious threat to Romney yet, although he has a chance to do well among religious conservatives in southern states. Grade: A+

Ron Paul was touted in the last couple of weeks as having a chance to win Iowa. His surprisingly strong poll numbers made him a serious candidate — probably for the first time ever — but also brought out more serious questions that probably hurt him. Since Iowa doesn’t have that many delegates, perception is more important than delegates in the state. The perception about Paul is that he had a shot at breaking through — and he couldn’t do it. Religious conservatives don’t generally like him and more establishment Republicans don’t like him for different reasons. Other than his rabid libertarian base, I see no place for him to pick up support. He will pick up enough delegates along the way to have some influence on the party platform, but he has no chance. Grade: B-

Newt Gingrich was the GOP flavor of the week about a month ago. Or has it been that long? It’s hard to keep track. It’s hard to see his campaign as anything except dead in the water. Surely everybody other than Gingrich knows that. In a space of mere weeks, he lost roughly half of his Republican support in Iowa. The better voters got to know him, the less they were inclined to vote for him. If he stays in the race much longer, it will only be because of his monstrous ego. Grade: D-

Rick Perry is a failed candidate. When he entered the race, I thought he had the look and feel of someone to challenge for the lead, but his dreadful performances in the candidate debates showed him to be a third-rate politician who wasn’t ready for the national stage. He acts like a man who’s accustomed to being a success — and is shocked that he’s not succeeding. I honestly think he expected to do well, and I suspect he’s puzzled that people don’t like him. He looks personally hurt about it to me. I expect him to quit and head back to Texas soon, where he has some oddly strange people who like the man. Grade: F

Michele Bachmann was always a joke of a candidate to me. Anyone who took her seriously as a candidate was either delusional or a member of her family. (Or both.) She appeals to a small segment of the socially conservative Christian vote, but there’s no evidence that anybody outside of that narrow slice knows her as anything other than a punchline to political jokes. She had nothing to offer politically. She was delusional and egotistical to think she even belonged in the race. Grade: F

I said earlier this year that I’m not a psychic, so I don’t necessarily like to predict election results this far in advance. But I’m ready to make at least a preliminary prediction. Unless something completely unexpected happens, Romney is going to win the nomination. If he does, he will defeat Barack Obama and be the next president. I’m not sure whether it’s more accurate to say that he will be the second term of Obama or the fourth term of George W. Bush. Neither is a compliment in my book.

So the long national nightmare called Campaign 2012 continues. The first chapter is closed and the road looks a lot more clear now. It will settle into a race between Romney and whatever candidate conservatives choose to coalesce around. There’s a slight chance it could still be Gingrich, but I don’t think so. (Gingrich is probably going to stick around and see how he does in South Carolina and Florida.) It’s more likely that social conservatives will rally around Santorum, especially in southern states. Bachmann has already dropped out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Perry drop out any day now, too.

Paul will continue to the end. He’ll pick up some delegates and the eventual winner will court his supporters, probably even throwing him a bone or two at platform time. But in the end, his candidacy will achieve nothing, in my view. About 10 percent of the country is generally libertarian. Paul will get their support, but nothing more. I’ll be shocked if he finishes the race with more than 10 percent of the vote — at most.

So I predict the fall will bring us a Romney vs. Obama matchup. Now that we’ve seen the first votes, what’s your prediction? If you share a prediction in the comments, please explain why you believe a candidate is going to win. Don’t just advocate for the one you personally prefer.

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I just remembered that I shot photos Friday evenin I just remembered that I shot photos Friday evening just before sunset. These two shots were only about a minute apart, just with different lenses. #nature #naturephotography #sky #colorful #clouds #sunset #birmingham #alabama
As far as I know, there were no nuclear devices se As far as I know, there were no nuclear devices set off anywhere near Birmingham this evening, but this cloud formation looked very much like a mushroom cloud rising in the west as I went through downtown Birmingham on I-65 around 6:30 tonight. #nature #naturephotography #sky #clouds #birmingham #alabama
For many years, I’ve believed that I could deliv For many years, I’ve believed that I could deliver some message worth sharing through audio or video if I just had the right platform. It’s always been an intuitive feeling, not a specific plan. And now that I have the technology in place to do a wide variety of media, that nasty old inner critic rears its head, asking whether I really have anything worthwhile to say. And as I sit here practicing, I still have no idea who’s right — my long-term intuition or my harsh inner critic.
Just after sunset Friday evening, there was quite Just after sunset Friday evening, there was quite a pastel light show in the sky to the west of me. #nature #naturephotography #sky #colorful #clouds #sunset #birmingham #alabama
This is the Thursday evening sunset that I just wa This is the Thursday evening sunset that I just watched behind a restaurant in Moody. It’s been raining all evening, but it cleared just enough for some colorful light to poke through the clouds. #nature #naturephotography #sky #colorful #clouds #sunset #birmingham #alabama
I just realized that I had some other photos from I just realized that I had some other photos from Wednesday night’s sunset which I could have posted. I ended up posting an iPhone panorama, but this is what a section of that looked like with the Sony A7 IV instead. #nature #naturephotography #sky #colorful #clouds #sunset #birmingham #alabama
Just a minute before the sun slipped beneath the h Just a minute before the sun slipped beneath the horizon, the late-evening light was colorful and magical Thursday. #nature #naturephotography #sky #colorful #clouds #sunset #birmingham #alabama
I didn’t have a lens wide enough to capture this I didn’t have a lens wide enough to capture this with my “real” camera, so this is just an iPhone panorama. It was beautiful to see in person. #nature #naturephotography #sky #colorful #clouds #sunset #birmingham #alabama
I just heard that tonight’s moon is something ca I just heard that tonight’s moon is something called a “supermoon,” so I photographed it to see if I could see anything unusual, but it looked pretty much the same to me. What exactly is different about this one? Does anyone know? #nature #naturephotography #sky #moon #birmingham #alabama
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For “throwback Thursday, let me introduce you to For “throwback Thursday, let me introduce you to Sam. In 2009, I took in a young feral cat who I named for the early American revolutionary Samuel Adams. He was one of the most confident — downright arrogant, in fact — cats I’ve ever been around. He had an amazing personality and I immediately loved him. He was no more than 8 or 9 months old when he suddenly died for reasons that my vet couldn’t explain. Even though I had him only a short time, he was one of my all-time favorites. #tbt #cats #tabby #feral #birmingham #alabama
I’ve never been as curious about what a cat migh I’ve never been as curious about what a cat might be thinking as I constantly am about Merlin. As I watch him sitting here on the edge of my desk late Wednesday night, I can’t help but conclude he’s a very deep thinker. #cat #cats #catstagram #catsofinstagram #cute #cutecat #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #merlin2024 #instacat #ilovecats #birmingham #alabama
Lucy has been happily rolling around in the freshl Lucy has been happily rolling around in the freshly cut grass of the back yard Wednesday evening. #dog #dogs #dogstagram #dogsofinstagram #cute #cutedog #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #instadog #ilovedogs #birmingham #alabama
Thomas believes that he is the Most Interesting Ca Thomas believes that he is the Most Interesting Cat in the World — and I can’t say he’s wrong tonight. #cat #cats #catstagram #catsofinstagram #cute #cutecat #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #tabby #tabbycat #instacat #ilovecats #birmingham #alabama
Merlin is ready for me to turn the last of the off Merlin is ready for me to turn the last of the office lights off so he and Thomas can sleep peacefully without me muttering to myself as I write. #cat #cats #catstagram #catsofinstagram #cute #cutecat #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #merlin2024 #instacat #ilovecats #birmingham #alabama
Lucy just finished a Neighborhood Watch patrol and Lucy just finished a Neighborhood Watch patrol and now she’s cooling off in the back yard before heading inside for dinner. Her work is never done. #dog #dogs #dogstagram #dogsofinstagram #cute #cutedog #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #instadog #ilovedogs #birmingham #alabama
Except when he’s asleep, Thomas always looks as Except when he’s asleep, Thomas always looks as though he’s on high alert and ready to run away from danger. His feral early years still dominate his internal programming. #cat #cats #catstagram #catsofinstagram #cute #cutecat #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #tabby #tabbycat #instacat #ilovecats #birmingham #alabama
Lucy just finished her last walk of the day, but s Lucy just finished her last walk of the day, but she still wants more attention. She’s sitting in front of me looking expectantly. She seems certain that we will go outside for one more adventure if she’s persistent enough. #dog #dogs #dogstagram #dogsofinstagram #cute #cutedog #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #instadog #ilovedogs #birmingham #alabama
My favorite photos of Merlin tend to be those — My favorite photos of Merlin tend to be those — such as this one — in which he seems to be contemplating difficult issues. Feline philosophy or quantum physics or something else that he figures I wouldn’t understand. #cat #cats #catstagram #catsofinstagram #cute #cutecat #pets #petstagram #petsofinstagram #merlin2024 #instacat #ilovecats #birmingham #alabama #caturday
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On a live awards show Sunday night, one man made a joke about a female celebrity. The husband of the celebrity was offended and hit the man who made the joke. Or maybe it was staged for entertainment. Who knows? Who cares? Social media is full of discussion — and even arguments — about this idiocy today. This baffles me. Let’s assume for a moment that the event happened as reported. People have been having such idiotic fights ever since there have been humans. Half the bars in the world see such brief dustups regularly. It simply doesn’t matter. The fact that so many people believe they need to talk about this — or even need to have opinions about it — is more evidence of the bizarre media brainwashing that convinces many to care passionately about brain-dead trivia. Your life will be happier and saner if you focus on yourself, your family and your friends, not on whatever scripted (or spontaneous) bilge that the media wants to pipe into your home.

I’m in the middle of migrating this website to new servers this week. This means you might encounter some unexpected behavior until I get all the bugs worked out. Clicking on my links (including this one) might cause your browser to give you the message that it’s a site without a current security certificate. It’s not actually unsafe, but there’s something which isn’t yet set up for the security certificate. I apologize for any such errors you might encounter while the process is going on. If you notice any problems with content which didn’t migrate properly, I would appreciate you letting me know the details at davidmcelroy@mac.com. Thanks for your patience.

I often wonder what animals think when they look at us and consider the society we’ve created. Yes, I know this is fanciful and unrealistic, but what if they could? Would they be astounded at how we treat each other? Would they be disgusted by the ugliness and pettiness which fill so many of our daily interactions? The truth is that I’m feeling pretty disgusted with humanity tonight. I made the mistake of reading some online interactions that I should have avoided — and it sickened me. The people involved appeared to be vile and stupid and arrogant. I wish I could pretend they’re a tiny minority, but I know better. It’s times such as this when I most need to escape much of “civilization” and disconnect from their world. If humans are going to be worthy of “ruling this planet,” we have a lot of growth to do. And I fear that growth is nowhere in sight. So my buddy Thomas, above, and all of his friends would be right to judge us harshly — and to think, “Why do you folks get to be in charge?”

I should have expected this, but I honestly didn’t. The article I wrote last week about disagreements over treatment for autistic children brought me angry emails. You could almost call it “hate mail.” Of the five emails about it so far, two have been to tell me that I’m wrong to even listen to critics of the most popular therapy for autistic children — and the other three tell me I’m wrong for not condemning the treatment as the “obvious” abuse it is. If you read the article, you know I didn’t take a position on the issue, because I simply don’t know enough to have an opinion. But by talking about the issue, I stepped into a heated controversy. The emails from the two sides convinced me of nothing. But they did give me even more empathy for the unfortunate parents who have to figure out for themselves where the truth lies for their children.

Have you ever had what you thought was a new idea — and then discovered that “old you” had the same idea years ago? I had that experience tonight. And it’s been wonderful. I came up with an idea tonight for a very short satirical film that would be a promotion for a fictitious college. The point is to make the college promote — as good things — everything which is actually terrible about most modern colleges. Then I remembered a fake college that I invented back when I was in college. I had created student recruitment brochures and various newsletters back then, so I decided to call my “new” college by the same name I’d invented years ago: Ochita College. As I searched my computer for any old material I might still have about Ochita from the past, I discovered an email I sent to someone in 2009 — outlining essentially the same idea which I came up with tonight. Since I didn’t remember writing that, it felt like magic. So my next film project just might be this one instead. If all goes well, you might soon see “Ochita College: Your Future Starts Here.” This should be fun.

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