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If you’re ever optimistic about our odds of changing society through persuasion and voting, take a look at what people outside of your own circle of friends believe. In some cases, even those in your own circle are scary enough. Sunday, I ran into a guy who’s convinced that the way to get rid of illegal narcotics in this country is to have a “10 to 20 year war with Mexico.”

For me, there’s no issue that touches on as many infringements of personal freedom as the “drug war” does. It violates people’s right to decide what to consume. It costs everybody a tremendous amount of money every year as governments — federal, state and local — pour billions of dollars down the rathole of “eradicating drugs.” And in the zeal to prosecute this “war,” innocent people (and even family pets) are being killed pretty regularly, but it’s shrugged off as necessary. Maybe worst of all, the fight against drugs is being used as an excuse to erode more and more of our freedoms. And even if you think recreational drugs are good — which I don’t — the problem isn’t getting any better. It never will.

Some people can’t accept that, though. On Facebook, a friend of a friend was blaming cocaine for the death of Whitney Houston. He said, “Cocaine sucks!! So do the nations and organizations that pump it into the U.S. May the iron rod of Jesus come down on the narco-nations now. In Jesus’ name. She might have done more cocaine than anybody in history; even though she might have kicked it recently. Know who brought cocaine to the U.S.?”

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A friend who lives in another country sent me a note Friday to let me know that he’d listed my name and phone number on his application to the U.S. government for a tourist visa. We joked back and forth for a couple of minutes about him coming to recruit terrorist agents or set off bombs or something, but I suddenly realized something I didn’t like.

Even though these were private messages we were exchanging and we were clearly joking in the context of him having to answer stupid questions on a visa application, I realized that I felt just a touch of nervousness. It wasn’t quite fear, but it was close. I found myself hesitant to make completely innocent jokes — simply because of the insanely paranoid police state that’s sprung up over the last decade in the name of fighting terrorism.

There was a time when I had confidence that the things I said in personal online correspondence were almost certainly private, because I didn’t fear being targeted for any reason. But given the increasingly paranoid attitudes and actions of politicians and bureaucrats, I no longer have that confidence.

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When people start getting checks from the government, they suddenly see government in a very different light. However they might have felt about transfer payments before, they can find excuses why they’re just fine and dandy, at least in their cases.

People can justify whatever it suits their needs to justify. It’s human nature, and you don’t even know you’re doing it. (You and I do it, too. It’s not just for “welfare queens” or some such silly stereotype.)

Roughly half of U.S. households now have at least one person receiving a check from the federal government, according to the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. So what does this mean for the future of the welfare state? I think it’s a pretty safe bet that those people are going to mostly be voting in their self-interest. That means they’re going to vote for candidates who promise to keep the cash coming — even if it’s not morally or fiscally responsible.

The truth is that the welfare state isn’t going away now unless the state goes away entirely. You’re never going to change it through voting.

There’s no such thing as what we used to call “welfare” anymore. You can’t get a check just because you’re poor. But 35 percent of the households get some kind of “means-tested” payment. (See Mercatus Center chart below.) The next largest single category is Medicaid, with 26 percent of households getting some kind of benefits. The ever-popular Ponzi scheme called Social Security goes to 16 percent of households. Food stamps and Medicare benefits each go to 15 percent of households. Various other programs send checks to even more households.

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