Ron Paul won 45 percent of the vote in a straw poll in California over the weekend, and his supporters are beside themselves with joy. What I can’t figure out is why such bright people are so fooled about something so meaningless.
There are three kinds of political polls. (Well, four, if you want to count election day voting.) Let’s talk about what they are and which ones matter, because many very bright people don’t understand which ones are potentially worth getting excited about.
The first of the three is the opinion poll with a statistically valid, randomly selected sample of the likely voting population — and this is the only one that matters. These are the polls done by the big polling organizations such as Gallup and Pew and various others done for major media outlets. These are expensive to conduct, but they tend to be very useful and reasonably accurate. The results can be skewed slightly one way or another by the wording of questions or by the selection of the random sample. Various pollsters make slightly different assumptions and calculations about who likely voters are going to be, but their results tend to be reasonably accurate — especially if you average all the polls.
No matter how admired you are, your work won’t make you special
We often live in the tension between known and unknown
Do I oppose rulers because I hate rulers — or because I hate rules?

For a culture where God is dead, spiritual emergence is madness
I’m still hungry for healthy love that my 5-year-old self craved
Reality frequently doesn’t match fantasy when you know full story
Can we find peace online when social media have become toxic?
A bully picked a fight that night — and now I’m dreaming about it
The so-called ‘social contract’ just means ‘the rest of us own you’