Ron Paul won 45 percent of the vote in a straw poll in California over the weekend, and his supporters are beside themselves with joy. What I can’t figure out is why such bright people are so fooled about something so meaningless.
There are three kinds of political polls. (Well, four, if you want to count election day voting.) Let’s talk about what they are and which ones matter, because many very bright people don’t understand which ones are potentially worth getting excited about.
The first of the three is the opinion poll with a statistically valid, randomly selected sample of the likely voting population — and this is the only one that matters. These are the polls done by the big polling organizations such as Gallup and Pew and various others done for major media outlets. These are expensive to conduct, but they tend to be very useful and reasonably accurate. The results can be skewed slightly one way or another by the wording of questions or by the selection of the random sample. Various pollsters make slightly different assumptions and calculations about who likely voters are going to be, but their results tend to be reasonably accurate — especially if you average all the polls.
What if ‘fixing’ a mental condition changes the person you are?
Is Obama playing politics with war on terror? Of course, just as Bush did
‘Tolerant’ left seethes with hate if you don’t accept ‘gender theory’

Can love last? Man holding hand of his dying wife gives me hope
I just found out an ex got married – and I’m shocked to feel jealous
Time and maturity should change what we believe we need in mates
‘Just do exactly what we say to do; it’s for your own good, you know’
Trump supporter: Trump imposes crippling tariffs to get rid of tariffs
I don’t know how to amuse you into taking your future seriously