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David McElroy

making sense of a dysfunctional culture

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Overconfidence in financial models will lead to ruin in coming collapse

By David McElroy · December 29, 2018

When financial disaster struck in 1929, it was a surprise to everyone.

Sophisticated financial types were busy making money and they never thought the good times would end. Less-sophisticated investors — those who made a good living and invested prudently — were wiped out, even though their investments were exactly what financial planners had advised.

And those common people who just worked for a living — who had no investments but didn’t think jobs would fade away — were devastated. Millions of people suddenly had no reasonable way to support their families. The Great Depression had come to the U.S. and Europe.

Almost nobody saw it coming — and those who were doing what they thought was smart were all wiped out, even though they were following conventional wisdom.

You don’t want to hear this, but that’s going to happen again — almost certainly within our lifetimes — and it’s going to wipe out everybody who’s currently doing the prudent and “reasonable” thing with their money. Of course, that narrative isn’t good for the business of those who sell you investments, so they’re going to do everything in their power to convince you not to look behind the curtain.

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Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: depression, economy, finance, investment

If you grow accustomed to abuse, you eventually accept it as normal

By David McElroy · December 28, 2018

Have you ever noticed a friend being abused — by a romantic partner or a dysfunctional parent — and gently suggested that maybe something is wrong in the person’s life?

I’ve learned from experience that few people are going to defend an abuser as much as his worst victim will. How could a victim defend his or her abuser? What could make someone so blind as to do this? What would make someone willing to deny what others can easily see?

I can understand how this happens, because I once played the role of the victim defending his abuser. It wasn’t that I was lying to anybody. I had just grown up with abuse and that was all I’d known. I was terrified of my father — and I knew he made me angry all the time — but I also believed he was the best father in the world.

How is it possible for me to have known all I knew about him, yet still put him on a pedestal? I don’t want to talk about this, but I need to.

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Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: abuse, narcissistic personality disorder, parents

If a bad relationship needs to end, fake Facebook posts won’t fool us

By David McElroy · December 27, 2018

As soon as Christmas was over, social media sites were covered with pictures of smiling, happy families. See that one? Don’t they look happy together?

Wait. I know those people. They’re miserable. She hates him and he’s been checked out of this marriage since not long after they married. He calls her “the devil incarnate.”

And those folks over there. I know the truth about them, too. He wants out of the marriage but can’t afford to divorce her, so she controls him and drives him to drink heavily.

And on and on the stories go.

It’s depressing to me. The only thing that seems worse than a bad relationship is watching two (or more) people pretend to be happy long enough to make photos. They’re not fooling each other. They’re not fooling anybody who knows them. So why do they project this lie?

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Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: divorce, love, marriage

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This was the sunset I saw from the parking lot out This was the sunset I saw from the parking lot outside of the Walmart near my house just after the sun went down Friday evening.
This little parody was inspired by my trip to buy This little parody was inspired by my trip to buy gas a little while ago. Even at a no-name brand, the price was $4.09. If I remember correctly, it was $2.29 a gallon at the same station on the day the war started. I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of winning. 🤣
For the best and most sophisticated in lawn care, For the best and most sophisticated in lawn care, check out the sponsor of one of my upcoming YouTube video episodes. 🙃 #parody #threestooges
Have you felt as though you’re living through Grou Have you felt as though you’re living through Groundhog Day lately? Me, too. Here’s a quick-and-dirty political satire I made this evening for fun and stress relief.
About three minutes before sunrise, vibrant color About three minutes before sunrise, vibrant color is poking through the skies to the east of my back yard.
The lights and color might have been more spectacu The lights and color might have been more spectacular a couple of minutes before this, but this was the best view I had of the Monday afternoon sunset from a bridge over I-20 in Moody, Ala.
I just remembered this shot I got a couple of hour I just remembered this shot I got a couple of hours ago of the fading sunset while I was in the Publix parking lot on the way home. If you suddenly find yourself craving Arby’s or Wendy’s, blame the giant icons in the sky, not me. 😃 (BTW, this was with the iPhone’s 8X telephoto lens.) #nature #naturephotography #sunset #birmingham #alabama
I had just pulled into a parking lot Friday night I had just pulled into a parking lot Friday night and was watching traffic through the distortion of the gently falling rain on my car window when I realized that the abstract view I had matched the way I was feeling tonight, so I turned it into a brief abstract video to match my mood.
Get ready for the next great animated Christmas cl Get ready for the next great animated Christmas classic, featuring singing and dancing and danger from Alex, Oliver and Sam. Coming soon to a theater near you. (The funniest part is that if I cared about this as anything more than a Christmas joke, it strikes me as something that could be profitable with the right story development and the right animators.)
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For a long time, Sam found it impossible to relax For a long time, Sam found it impossible to relax like this in my arms. Even now, he would rather lie on the bed than on me, but it’s satisfying to see him learn to trust me enough to stretch out and relax. I’ve had a few feral cats in the past who never got even this far on the road to complete trust.
When I got back home just after 1 a.m., I found th When I got back home just after 1 a.m., I found that Alex hadn’t waited up for me. He roused himself just enough to give this enormous yawn and then he was back to sleep. It’s a good thing I know he isn’t going to use those teeth on me. He could be dangerous.
I just caught Sam spying on me from across the roo I just caught Sam spying on me from across the room as he peeks over the edge of the bed.
We’re having one more slightly cool day and Alex i We’re having one more slightly cool day and Alex is spending the afternoon on the heated pad as a result. Since you can see the CritterCam on the left side of the frame, I’ll include the angle that camera sees, too.
It’s been six months since I lost Lucy. I like to It’s been six months since I lost Lucy. I like to believe she’s patiently waiting at the gates of heaven — ready for the reunion when I meet her again one day.

I still think about this sweet and faithful companion every single day. If you’ve ever had a dog who you loved, you’ll understand.

When I put the key into my front door when I return home each day, part of me still waits to hear the sound of her tail hitting the door as she realizes I’ve returned.

When I get up in the morning, part of me still feels compelled to get her leash and take her for the first walk of the day — something she loved so much. At night, part of me wants to take her for one last walk before bed, because each walk made her so happy.

But I can’t do those things, because the World’s Happiest Dog isn’t here anymore.

I no longer have an excited companion every time I go on a short trip in the car. I no longer have a sweet and beautiful girl who looks at me with love and adoration every day. I no longer have someone who wants to lie at my feet as I work at my desk.

It’s a privilege to be trusted with the life and well-being of a dog. It’s an honor to win the love and affection of such a companion. And the truth is that some of them are more special to us than others. For me, Lucy was one of those.

I don’t have any insight into the theology surrounding animals in the afterlife, but I like to believe they’re there, too.

Because if Lucy isn’t there when I die — and if some of my other dearly loved dogs and cats aren’t there — I’m not sure we could really call it heaven.

I miss you, Lucy. Wherever you are, I like to think you miss me, too.

And I like to think I’ll see you again one of these days.
Oliver and Alex have been chasing each other aroun Oliver and Alex have been chasing each other around the bedroom and office for much of the evening. As Alex walks across the bedroom, he doesn’t seem aware that Oliver is still tracking him. Right after this, Oliver pounced on him and the chase was on once again.
Sam is a lot more willing to tolerate me now than Sam is a lot more willing to tolerate me now than he was when he first came in from the street about 18 months ago.
Early Wednesday afternoon, Alex is relaxing on the Early Wednesday afternoon, Alex is relaxing on the castle as he waits for the storms we’re expecting later today.
At 7 a.m. Tuesday, Sam watches as a school bus sto At 7 a.m. Tuesday, Sam watches as a school bus stops to pick up children on our block who’re headed to school.
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We are ruled by the dumbest and most incompetent people among us — and we have a system which allows stupid and irresponsible people to force the costs of their idiocy onto smarter and wiser people. Can we get away with that? Yes, for quite some time. But we eventually reach a point at which the dumbest of the dumb — who are habitual liars and mentally ill fools — lead us to the disasters and destruction that some of us have seen coming for years. We are approaching that point. And yet most of the idiots around us still wave their rhetorical banners of support for the evil people who are leading us to ruin — and all of them point their fingers at someone else, never noticing that their own enthusiastic support of evil is to blame. When things finally fall apart, blame yourself for your blindness to the evil, not whoever happens to be in power when it happens.

I’ve been making some changes to the site lately and there are more changes coming in the days ahead, so don’t be surprised if you some small differences. This is not a wholesale redesign, but rather the addition of some features. Since they’re smarter than I am, I’ve put Oliver and Alex in charge of the technical work, which you can see in this action photo from the control room of our media complex. I recently added a series of landing pages for readers who randomly discover the site from an Internet search. I’ve also changed the YouTube link at the top of the page to go to the new YouTube channel for video essays that reflect things I’ve already published here. (Here’s a little bit about both of the YouTube channels I’m working on.) In addition, I’m trying to move away from using Instagram, so I’m experimenting with photo plug-ins that will eventually allow me to host the pictures — cats, dogs, sunsets, whatever — that I often take. So don’t be surprised to see more changes. Thanks for your patience. Let’s hope Alex and Oliver know what they’re doing.

I have no use for the theocratic and repressive government of Iran. The people who run the country are cruel at best and evil at worst. The Iranian people deserve freedom. But I have no personal quarrel with anybody in Iran. While I’m not thrilled about a future Iranian government having nuclear weapons, I’m just as concerned about nukes in the hands of politicians in Israel, Pakistan, India, China and Russia. I’m not even thrilled with the U.S., Britain and France having them, either, because I don’t trust any politicians to be responsible with such terrible weapons. All I can say with certainty is that American taxpayers have no business attacking Iran, especially since we’re being forced to pay for this attack in order to benefit the politicians of Israel — and nobody else. If Middle Eastern countries want to fight among themselves, that’s none of my business. It’s not the business of the U.S. government, either. I have no quarrel with anybody in Iran — and having the government which claims to represent me launch an unprovoked attack against a sovereign country will only make all Americans less safe in the near future. This attack is poorly conceived and morally unjustified. Remember that when the Iranians launch attacks that we will then condemn as “terrorism.” What the U.S. is doing right now looks like terrorism to me. And let’s not forget that the attack is the latest in a long line of unconstitutional wars by various U.S. presidents — who have no legal power to declare war on their own, according to the U.S. Constitution.

A child having a tantrum understands only one thing: Did I get my way or not? He doesn’t understand the issues involved. He doesn’t understand the reasons that went into a decision. He doesn’t understand any of the things that mature and reasonable adults have to understand in order to live healthy lives. By his reaction to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling to strike down his disastrous tariff scheme, Donald Trump shows himself to be — once more — a screaming child having a tantrum. Outside the world of mob bosses who expect to get their way every time, normal adults don’t act this way, but Trump isn’t normal. He’s an angry and vengeful man who has narcissistic personality disorder. And we are in danger as a result. Trump doesn’t understand the legal issues involved in this ruling. He doesn’t understand economics. He doesn’t understand rule of law. He doesn’t understand that he can ever be wrong. All he understands is that he didn’t get his way. And he is now a narcissistic and raging little boy who also happens to hold life-and-death power over most humans on this planet. He’s dangerous — and the system which gives him that power is even more dangerous.

Is it an attempt to blur the gender line between men and women? Or is it some weird tribute to the traditional Scottish kilt? It’s hard to say, but fashion designers keep pushing for men to wear skirts in the last few years. Both men and women in modern fashion seem oddly androgynous, as though it would be offensive for a man to look manly or for a woman to look feminine. A CNN article about the latest fashions from Paris caught my attention Monday and left me wondering about the ugly clothes the designers are hawking. If a man wants to wear a skirt — or a kilt — that’s OK with me, but I’ll stick with a traditional dark suit with a white shirt and tie. (Well, when I’m not wearing t-shirts and sweats, of course.) I always wonder who actually buys the outlandish garb from fashion designers anyway. I would be humiliated to be seen in any of this stuff, but I obviously have no sense of high fashion.

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